Is this an expected outcome?
The homepage runs a Thompson Sampling model. Each question is an arm. Right now, ai-math wins 27.4% of simulated draws — the model is exploring. Given the uncertainty in the posteriors, is that what you'd expect?
| Question | α | β | mean | 90% CI | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-math | 12 | 239 | 0.048 | 0.028–0.072 | 27.4% |
| rationality | 5 | 128 | 0.038 | 0.015–0.069 | 12.5% |
| deno-deploy | 2 | 65 | 0.030 | 0.005–0.071 | 9.6% |
| abtest-react | 3 | 90 | 0.032 | 0.009–0.066 | 9.3% |
| bits | 3 | 91 | 0.032 | 0.009–0.067 | 8.6% |
| cookie-consent | 2 | 69 | 0.028 | 0.005–0.066 | 8.3% |
| transcripts | 2 | 70 | 0.028 | 0.005–0.064 | 7.8% |
| bluesky | 2 | 71 | 0.027 | 0.005–0.065 | 6.8% |
| entropy | 1 | 46 | 0.021 | 0.001–0.064 | 5.8% |
| bayesian | 1 | 53 | 0.019 | 0.001–0.055 | 4.0% |
α = votes + 1 · β = max(1, impressions − votes + 1) · sorted by win %
Top arm wins 27.4% of 10,000 simulated draws → exploring
Thompson Sampling is doing the right thing — it's exploiting the arm with the best posterior — but whether that looks "expected" depends on your prior about how quickly a bandit should converge. With low impression counts, the posteriors are wide and the win-% should be diffuse. If one arm is already dominating at low N, that's either signal or noise. This vote collects your read.